Vulnerability Assessment of Agriculture at Different Spatial ...

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Global climate change models project that the Central Anatolia region of Turkey will be adversely affected by climate change and variability. Some parts of the region have already been experiencing various climatic changes in the form of gradual increases in temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, droughts, dust storms, etc. The region is named “breadbasket” and covers 33 percent of the agricultural land of the country. Climatic changes inevitably affect agricultural production in the region; however, the factors determining the vulnerability of the farmers are not yet clearly identified. Vulnerability studies use either top-down or bottom-up approaches to evaluate vulnerability. In this article, we used a multiscale evaluation method of agricultural vulnerability to climatic changes and extremes. Vulnerability at the provincial level is mapped on a theoretical basis, whereas vulnerability at the household level is examined using empirical data collected in a survey guided by provincial-level mapping in Konya. We also provide a new definition of household vulnerability based on statements of the farmers and examine significant drivers of their vulnerability. The results reveal that the number of memberships of agricultural organizations, household size, total number of livestock owned, annual income, and dependency ratio of the household are factors significantly affecting household-level farmer vulnerability.